There does not seem to be much of a contest in this regard. The three-month peri of November through January has definitely been the strongest three-month peri of the year for the stock market-not necessarily every year, but certainly over;
For example, this period produced nicely rising prices during 1995-1996,1996-19 1997-1998,1998-1999, and 1999-2000. Its performance dropped off, along with such prices in general, during the nasty bear market period thereafter before returning winning ways between November 2003 and February 2004.
July, September, and October have tended to be the weakest months for stoc October has had a history of being the month most likely to see market turnarounc which makes it a good month in which to plan or to execute the accumulation shares in preparation for the more favorable year-end period that includes I months of November, December, and January.
October has marked turnarounds in major bear markets or significant intermediate market declines during years such as 1946, 1957, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1978,1979, 1987,1989,1990,1998, and 2002, the last of which finally reversed the most severe bear market in decades. It goes without saying, of course, that October was &o the month of the fabled stock market crash of 1929.
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2009-6
25
The Best and Worst Months of the Year
Category: Sale | Comments Off
2009-6
24
A Significant Buy Signal
Category: buying | Comments Off
The following sequence produces very significant buy signals:
1. The stock market enters into a trading range
2. A breakdown takes place through the lower boundary of the trading range.
This, perhaps, trips a few stop-loss orders in the process, extending the decline a touch, but there is basically little in the way of follow-through to the decline.
3. Prices quickly reverse upward back into and then through and above the trading range. The penetration of the upper boundary of the trading range is frequently followed by an extensive and dynamic market advance.
Sequences of this nature developed between February and March 2003 and again during July and September of that year. You might notice that the bullish implications of the early Mardl pattern were reinforced by an angle change measuremer just before the false shakeout that suggested the completion of the market’s currer downside objective.